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Oil price or oil price in general refers to the spot price of a barrel (159 liters) of reference crude oil - the reference cost for users of crude oil such as west texas intermediate (wti), brent crude, dubai crude, opec reference basket, tapis, bonny light, urals oil, https://riser.wtf/tags/ isthmus and western canadian select (wcs) the price of crude oil was relatively stable in the nineteenth and early 20th centuries.[3] the situation was somewhat different in the 1970s, when world oil prices jumped significantly.[3] historically, there have been several structural factors affecting world oil prices, including shocks to supply, demand, and oil content, as well as shocks to global economic growth affecting oil prices.[4] high-profile events that caused significant price changes include the 1973 opec oil embargo against countries that supported israel in the doomsday army [5]: 329, leading to the 1973 oil crisis, the iranian revolution during the 1979 oil crisis and the financial crisis of 2007. -2008, and the recent oil oversupply in 2013, which led to the largest drop in oil prices in advanced history" in 2014-2016. The 60% decline in world oil prices was "one of the three leading declines since the existence of the second world war and the longest since the collapse of the files in 1986."[6] by 2015, the united states became the third largest oil producer, moving from an importer to an exporter.[7]

<>the oil price war between russia and saudi arabia in 2020 led to a decrease in world oil prices by 65 % at the very beginning of the covid-19 pandemic.[8][9] in 2021, record high fuel prices were driven by a global surge in demand as the world recovered from the recession caused by covid-19.[10][11][12] by december 2021, an unexpected recovery in demand for oil from the outside us, the people's republic of china, and india, combined with us shale investors' rules to hold the spending line, contributed to the "limit" of oil reserves in the world. On january 18, 2022, as the price of brent crude oil reached its highest level since 2014 at $88, there was concern about the rise in the cost of gasoline, which reached a record success in the united kingdom.[14]

1 structural factors of world oil prices

2 analysis of oil price fluctuations

3 indicative pricing

4 world oil prices timeline

5 oil storage trade (contango)

6 comparative production costs

7 forecasts future

8 the impact of rising oil prices

9 the impact of falling oil prices

10 speculative trading in crude oil futures

10.1 speculation during the financial crisis of 2007-2008

10.2 hedging using oil derivatives

10.3 institutional investors, abandoning the oil industry

11 impact of covid on oil prices

12 see also

13 links

14 external links

Structural drivers of world oil prices[edit]according to our world in data, in the nineteenth century and for them by the past century, world prices for crude oil were "relatively constant". [3] the 1970s saw a "significant increase" in global oil prices, [3] partly in response to the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. In 1980, average world prices “jumped” to us$107.27.[3]

Historically, world oil prices have been influenced by a number of factors. These are the organization of the arab petroleum exporting countries led by saudi arabia, which led to the 1973 oil crisis, the iranian uprising at the end of the 1979 oil crisis, the iran-iraq war (1980-1988), the iraqi invasion of kuwait in 1990 . 1991 iraqi invasion gulf war, 1997 asian financial crisis, 9/11 attacks, 2002–2003 nationwide strike in the venezuelan state oil company petroleos de venezuela, s.A. (Pdvsa), organization of the petroleum exporting countries (opec), 2007–2008. Global financial collapse (gfc), opec oil cuts in 2009, arab spring uprisings of the 2010s in egypt and libya, the ongoing civil war in syria (from 2011 to the present), an oversupply of oil in 2013. A decline in prices in modern porn from 2014 to 2016. The 70 percent percent %%%% drop in world oil prices was "the top three declines since world war ii and the longest since the supply-driven collapse of XXX Tube 1986."In 2015, the united states was the three largest oil producer moving from importer to exporter.[7] the oil price war between russia and saudi arabia in 2020 led to a 65% decline in global oil prices at the dawn of the covid-19 pandemic. Oil prices include "oil supply shocks, oil market popularity shocks, storage popularity shocks", "global economic growth shocks" [4] and "speculative demand for oil reserves above ground".[17]

Analysis of oil price fluctuations[edit]

Weekly reports of crude oil inventories or total inventories in storage facilities such as these reservoirs get a wide impact on oil prices

Oil prices are determined by global forces of demand and distribution according to some economic microeconomic pricing model.[18][19][20][21] demand for oil is highly dependent on global macroeconomic conditions.[18] according to the international energy agency, high oil prices, which, however, have a great negative impact on global economic growth.[18] of crude oil production, transportation, processing and consumption of products and similar regions - the united states, canada, latin america, europe, the middle east and africa, asia.[22] the analysis lists exogenous variables that may affect oil cost: "regional demand and distribution equations, refining technology and federal program variables". On the basis of these exogenous variables, their proposed economic model will be able to determine “the levels of consumption, manufacture and prices for each product, in different places, the structure of world trade flows, and, among other things, the capital structure and output of oil refineries in different places.” .[22]

The economic system dynamics model of oil pricing “integrates various factors that affect oil price dynamics, according to an article published in the 1992 european journal of operational research.[23 ]

Lutz killian's widely cited 2008 economic and statistics review examines the extent to which "exogenous oil supply shocks" such as the iranian revolution (1978–1979), iran- the iraq war (1980-1988), the gulf war (1990-1991), the iraq war (2003), venezuelan civil unrest (2002-2003) and even the yom kippur war / arab oil embargo (1973-1974) "to explain oil price changes". [24] killian stated that by 2008 "should be widely considered endogenous in terms of global macroeconomic conditions"[24], but killian added that electrical "standard theoretical transmission models for oil price shocks that claim that everything else remains fixed at increase in the normal cost of imported crude oil are misleading and should be replaced by models that allow endogenous determination of the price of oil.” Killian found that there was no evidence that the oil supply shocks of 1973-1974 and 2002-2003 had an unimaginable effect on real growth in a particular country g7, while the shocks of 1978-1979, 1980 and 1990-1991 contributed to lower growth in at least in some g7 countries.” Oil consumption compared to four types of oil shocks.[4] the structural vector autoregression model was proposed by the american econometrician and macroeconomist christopher a. Sims in 1982 as an alternative statistical framework model for macroeconomists. According to the boc report, which includes the svar model, “oil supply shocks were the dominant force during the 2014-2015 oil price decline.”[4]

By 2016, despite the improvement understanding markets, forecasting oil price movements has been a challenge for economists, according to a 2016 article in the journal of economic perspectives, which was based on an extensive review of the academic literature by economists on all major oil price movements between 1973 and 2014. Year". 26]

A 2016 article published by the oxford institute for energy studies describes how analysts have given varying opinions as to why[27] the price of oil has fallen by 55% since "june 2014" to january of last year"[28]:10 after "4 years of relative stability at the level of about 105 us dollars per barrel". And they expected prices to “stay low for a significant period of time.”[28]:4

Goldman sachs, f for example, called this structural shift the “new oil order” created by the shale revolution. In the usa.[29] goldman sachs stated that this structural shift is "reshaping global energy markets and hurting and bringing with it a new era of volatility", "affecting markets, economies, industries and companies around the world" and will translate into holding oil prices for more democratic level for a long period. [30] ] others believe that such a cycle is similar to previous cycles and what a useful thing prices will rise again. Continued to be the main factors influencing world oil prices. Researchers using a new bayesian structural time series model found that shale oil production continued to increase its effect on the oil price, but it was “relatively small.”[31]

Benchmark pricing[edit]

Main articles: benchmarking (crude oil) and opec benchmark basket

Brent crude

Major benchmarks or pricing markers, including brent, wti, [32] opec reference basket (orb), presented june 16, 2005, consisting of saharan blend (from algeria), girassol (from angola), oriente (from this country), rabi light (from gabon), iran heavy (from iran), basra light (from iraq), kuwait export (from kuwait), es sider (from libya), bonny light (from nigeria ), qatar marine (from qatar), arab light (from saudi arabia), murban (uae),[33] and merey (venezuela),[34] dubai crude and tapis crude (singapore).

To the north in america, the benchmark price refers to the spot price of west texas intermediate (wti), also known as texas light sweet, a type e of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing and the main commodity of new york mercantile exchange oil futures contracts. Wti is a light oil, lighter than brent crude. It contains about 0.24% sulphur, which makes skinali low-sulphur, sweeter than brent. Its characteristics and manufacturing site make it ideal for processing in the united states, primarily in the midwest and gulf coast areas. Wti has an api of about 39.6 (specific gravity about 0.827) per barrel (159 liters) of either wti or light oil traded on the new york mercantile exchange (nymex) for delivery in cushing, oklahoma. Cushing, oklahoma, a major oil supply hub connecting oil suppliers to the gulf coast, has become the most important center for crude oil trading in north america.

In europe and some other parts of the world, the price of benchmark oil is brent crude oil traded on the intercontinental exchange (ice, which includes the international petroleum exchange) for delivery at sullom wow. Brent oil is produced in the coastal waters (north sea) of great britain and norway. The total consumption of crude oil in england and norway exceeds the oil production in asian countries.[37][38] so, the brent crude oil market is very opaque, physically oil trading is very low.[39][40][41] brent oil price is traditionally used to fix prices for crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, liquefied natural gas feedstock, etc. In international trade, including middle east crude oil.[42]

There is a discrepancy in cost. A barrel of oil created on its grade, determined by factors such as its specific gravity or api and sulfur content, and its location, such as its proximity to tidal waters and refineries. Heavier, higher sulfur crudes with no tidewater entry, such as western canadian select, are much cheaper than lighter, less sweet crudes, such as wti.[43]

Energy management information (eia) uses the purchase price of an imported refinery, the weighted average cost of all oil imported into america, as its "world oil price".

World oil prices: timeline[edit]

Oil prices in us dollars, 1861–2015 (1861-1944 - us average oil, 1945-1983 - arabian light, 1984-2015 - brent). Red line adjusted for inflation, blue line unadjusted.

Oil prices remained "relatively constant" from 1861 to the 1970s.[3] in daniel yergin's pulitzer prize-winning 1991 book the prize: the epic quest for oil, funds, and power, yergin described how the oil supply chain, run by "international oil companies," "collapsed." In 1973 [44]: 599 yergin states that the role of the conglomerate of oil exporting countries (opec), which was created in 1960 by iran, iraq, kuwait, saudi arabia and venezuela. [46][47] - there have been dramatic changes in the control over the cost of oil. Since 1927, a cartel known as the "seven sisters", five of which were headquartered in the united states, has controlled posted prices since the so-called red line agreement of 1927 and the ahnakerry agreement of 1928, and has secured qualified prices. According to yergin, until 1972 [44]

In the 1970s.There were 2 rather big energy crises: the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis, which affected oil prices. From the early 1970s, when domestic oil production was insufficient to tempt growing domestic demand, the us became even more dependent on oil imports from the middle east.[44] until the early 1970s, the price of oil in america was regulated within the russian federation and indirectly by the seven sisters. The "scale" of oil price increases following the opec embargo in 1973 in response to the yom kippur war and the 1979 iranian revolution was unprecedented.[26] in the 1973 yom kippur war, a coalition of arab states led by egypt and syria attacked israel. Support for israel. Countries including the united states, germany, japan[48] and canada[49] began to form their own national energy programs that were scattered around the health of the oil supply[44]:607 like the newly formed petroleum export organization. Countries (opec) doubled the price of oil.[44]:607

During the oil crisis of 1979, world oil supplies were "limited" due to iran's "more than doubling"[60%, and then began to fall “in real terms from 1980 onwards, undermining opec’s grip on the russian economy,” according to the economist[50].

The 1970s oil crisis spawned speculative trading and crude oil futures markets wti. “[47][3] at the very beginning of the 21st century, the price of oil was $50. In 1980, average world prices "jumped" to us$107.27[a third hit their all-time high of us$147 in july 2008

The surplus of oil in the 1980s was ordered by all that states were not members of opec. Countries such as the united states and great britain increased their oil production, which caused oil prices to decline in the early 1980s, according to the economist.[50] when opec changed its policy to increase oil supplies in 1985, “oil prices collapsed and remained low for almost two decades,” according to a 2015 world bank report.[28]:10[53]

<>in 1983, the new york mercantile exchange (nymex) launched crude oil futures contracts and the london-based international petroleum exchange (ipe), acquired by intercontinental exchange (ice) in 2005, launched its futures contracts in june 1988 .[54]

The price of oil peaked c. Us$65 during the crisis and gulf war of 1990. The oil price shock in 1990 was in response to the iraqi invasion of kuwait, according to the brookings institution.[55]

This was a period of global recession, when oil prices in. $15 before it peaked at $45 on september 11, 2001, the day of the september 11 attacks,[56] only to fall again to a paltry $26 on may 8, 2003.[57]

<>the price rose to $80 after the us invasion of iraq.

There were major energy crises at the beginning of the century, in particular the oil glut in the 2010s, associated with fluctuations in world oil levels .

West texas intermediate (wti) oil and gas prices

Since 1999, the price of oil has risen significantly. This was due to the growing demand for oil in these countries like china and india.[58] behind a sharp rise from us$50 at the dawn of 2007. Peaks at us$147 in july 2008 followed by a decline to us$34 in december 2008 as the 2007-2008 financial crisis erupted.[59]:46

By may 2008 the united states consumed about twenty-one million barrels per day and imported about 14 million barrels per day - 60%, while opec supplies accounted for 16%, and venezuela - 10%.[60] during the height of the 2007–2008 financial crisis, oil prices declined significantly from an all-time high of $147.27 on july 11, 2008. On december 23, 2008, the spot price of wti crude fell to $30.28 per barrel. , The lowest since the start of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The price recovered sharply after the crisis and rose to $82 per barrel in 2009. Since october 2008 due to the risk that protests in egypt in 2011 "will lead to the closure of the suez canal and the disruption of oil supplies." For about three and a half years, the price generally remained in the range of $90 to $120.

From 2004 to 2014, opec set the world price for oil.[64] opec began to set a target price range of 100-110 greenbacks per barrel long before the financial crisis of 2008[28]:10 - by july 2008, the price of oil reached its historical maximum of $147 in america, and then fell to $34 in december 2008. , During the financial crisis of 2007–2008.[59]: 46 some commentators, including business week, financial times and the washington post, have argued that the rise in oil prices prior to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Futures markets. "China and other emerging economies". Most oil exporters did not expect”, leading to “price turmoil”. Oil.[64] in the depths of 2014, the price began to fall due to a significant increase in us oil production and falling demand in developing countries.[73] according to ambrose evans-pritchard, in 2014-2015, saudi arabia flooded the market with low-cost crude oil following a failed attempt to slow u.S. Shale oil production and caused a “positive supply shock” that saved consumers about $2. Trillion and “benefited the global economy.”[74]

During 2014-2015, opec members consistently exceeded their production ceiling, while china experienced a marked slowdown in economic growth. At the same time, oil production in the united states of america nearly doubled compared to 2008 due to costly upgrades to shale fracturing technology in a rebuff to record oil prices. The combination of factors led to a sharp drop in us oil import requirements and a record high amount of world oil reserves in storage, as well as a drop in oil prices that has not stopped in recent times. According to the world bank, between june 2014 and january 2015, the collapse in oil prices was the third largest since 1986.[27]

In early 2015, the price of oil in the united states fell below $50 a barrel, brent oil fell slightly below $50.[77] which continued until february. 2016.[78] by february 3, 2016, oil was below $30 [79], serving as a drop “of almost 75% since mid-2014 as competing producers pumped several million barrels of crude oil daily, exceeding demand, just at the hour when the economy china showed the lowest growth in a generation.” [57] the north sea oil and gas industry has experienced monetary problems as a result of declining oil prices, even calling for government support in may 2016.[80] according to a report published on february 15, 2016 by

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